Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
